Prof. Timo Vesala
Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Finland; E-mail: Timo.vesala@helsinki.fi
- Title: Biosphere-atmosphere interactions (簡報檔下載)
- Abstract: The global mean temperature has increased and will continue increasing in the 21st century due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere. Understanding of the driving forces of climate change requires full quantification of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions/sinks and their evolution by long term and high precision observations in the atmosphere and at the land and ocean surfaces. There are major research challenges such as 1) what is the regional distribution of GHG exchange rates (fluxes), 2) how do environmental factors and human intervention impacts the exchange of GHG and 3) how will the sources and sinks of GHGs change in future.
There is a need for high precision long term network of stations measuring GHG exchange and concentrations. Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) is a new European network for quantifying and understanding the greenhouse gas balance of land areas and oceans. The mission of ICOS is to provide the long-term atmospheric and flux observations required to understand the present state and predict future behaviour of the global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas emissions. These are needed for monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or GHG emission-reduction activities on global atmospheric composition levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector. Measurement stations produce the monitoring data on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases as well as carbon and nitrogen cycles in different ecosystems.
Dr. Hubertus Bardt
Head of Research Unit Environment, Energy, Resources, Cologne Institute for Economic Research, Germany; E-mail: bardt@iwkoeln.de
- Title: Approaches to adaptation in Germany (簡報檔下載)
- Abstract: Adaptation to climate change can be organised by private business or all levels of government agencies. Within the research framework of „KLIMZUG – Managing Climate Change in the Regions of the Future“ (www.klimzug.de), relevant players in seven selected regions (researchers, local government, business) in Germany are supposed to build adaptation capacities. These regions face very different challenges: While summer drought and its impact on agriculture are critical in some regions, flooding and transportation issues are more important in other regions. The objective of the KLIMZUG-projects is to develop innovative regional strategies for adaptation to climate change and related weather extremes. Therefore, potential changes in climate have to be integrated in processes of regional planning and development.
For the great majority of businesses, climate change has thus far only been a topic where climate protection or climate politics is concerned. Future consequences of the climate do not appear relevant to them in many of their decisions. But businesses are increasingly affected even today when international suppliers and customers experience production failures or delayed delivery due to extreme weather events. Here is where businesses need to adapt.
The Cologne Institute for Economic Research takes the value chain into account and analyses such possible critical operations as procurement, production and distribution. The result is a detailed picture of the opportunities and threats facing the various economic sectors, as well as the weaknesses and strengths of the businesses concerned. Municipalities greatly vary in their organisational structure, size, financial resources, and of course also in their location. Storm surges, floods and droughts do not represent a risk to be prepared for everywhere. Heat islands do not pose a problem in all cities. Some municipalities are very dependent on tourism, while others have a strong commercial component. Connections with neighbouring municipalities also differ. They may either mutually support or obstruct one another. The results of the survey among local directors of environmental affairs and mayors show the importance of cooperative solutions for planning and implementing adaptation measures, differentiated into such areas as healthcare, tourism, water and energy supply, or agriculture and forestry.
Prof. Chris Zevenbergen
Professor of Flood Resilience of Urban Systems, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; director Business Development of the Dura Vermeer Group NV and professor at the Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands; E-mail: c.zevenbergen@duravermeer.nl
- Title: The economics of adaptation in flood risk management:some recent Dutch experiences (簡報檔下載)
- Abstract: Cities are dynamic systems. Understanding the role of time and the way it shapes the urban fabric and structure is crucial to assess urban flood vulnerability and to manage the capacity of cities to adapt to changes in demography as well as in climatic conditions. Consequently, cities have to learn from the past and anticipate the future in order to develop and implement effective flood management approaches. They have to eliminate unsatisfactory practices through investigation, experimentation and evaluation. Urban renewal of buildings and infrastructure is one of the means by which cities adapt to long term changes, to correct old errors and to increase flood resilience. According to the latest climate change scenarios flood frequency is going to increase significantly over the lifetime of existing buildings. Therefore, the inclusion of pro-active retrofitting in regular urban renewal schemes and decreasing lifetime cycles of new buildings are likely sound and effective strategies to increase the resilience of the urban fabric to climate change. Since current building practices are based upon the assumption that the built environment will not experience significant change, these approaches will have major ramifications for investment levels and building methods. There are major opportunities to adapt the urban fabric through synergistic interventions c.q. through the autonomous renewal of urban infrastructure and building stocks both now and in the future. However, significant building renewal cycles occur every 30-50 years and major infrastructure renewal cycles at even longer timescales of more than 100 years. Despite this there are significant opportunities to make buildings and infrastructure more resilient to external stress (an easier to realise goal than sustainability) in an economic sensible way. Given the pace of climate and other changes and the need to manage carbon and energy better, there is an urgent need to incorporate cost effective measures, which are flexible by synergistic inclusion within refurbishment and renovation programmes. This needs to be recognised and planned, so that inclusion of such measures are part of a long-term adaptive strategy. The presentation will conclude with an illustration of a recent study in the Netherlands that have mapped urban flood vulnerabilities and identified where adaptive potential can best be targeted at the current building stock through refurbishment, renewal and regeneration.
