跨領域氣候調適整合方法 (簡報檔下載)
- 參與教授：劉振榮, 童慶斌, 李明安, 張靜貞, 李河清, 詹士樑, 王國英
- 中文摘要：
- 關鍵詞彙：跨領域, 調適科技, 暴露度, 敏感度, 調適力
環境系統分析 (簡報檔下載)
- 參與教授：李明安(發表人), 劉振榮, 陳良健, 林唐煌, 李錫堤
- 中文摘要：氣候變遷一般可包括長期間與年間的氣候變遷及不確定性之短期極端環境變化，其不僅衝擊大自然的生態平衡，更直接或間接影響人類的日常生活。在人類企圖扭轉氣候變遷衝擊的同時，如何與大自然和諧共存才是最要的因應之道。本計畫為臺灣氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫(TaiCCAT)的一部份，透過大氣、陸地、地質與海洋環境的整合與加值分析，以供氣候變遷之脆弱度評估與恢復能力建構及未來氣候調適之風險管理分析與應用。本計畫之先期研究已完成臺灣及週邊水域之降雨、氣溫、水溫與風向風速等因子之觀測與資料收集，並建立地形、地質、岩層等地質與水文資料，完成發展崩塌潛勢預警模式，同時也證實都會區與郊區隨著城市發展之進程不同所呈現熱島效應現象也不一樣。又配合脆弱度-糧食安全之議題，跨領域共同探討臺灣西部海域之水溫及烏魚資源量之變動與氣候變遷指標(如PDO、ENSO)之關係及糧食安全之影響，以及海氣交互效應下對生物生態的衝擊與調適策略。而未來三年時間將與TCCIP密切合作，強化海洋-大氣-陸地-生態等面向長期環境監測資料，並嘗試建立海洋-大氣、海洋-生態及海洋-海岸等多元資料加值方法論，作為「脆弱度評估組-糧食安全」建立脆弱度評估方法之重要依據，並配合空間型示範區-七股濕地與西海岸探討水溫與水位改變及微氣候變遷指標對此一空間型示範區的生態系統、糧食結構及漁村社會經濟互動關係。
- 關鍵詞彙：臺灣, 環境, 全球暖化, 熱島效應, 加值分析
跨領域脆弱度評估與回復能力建構 (簡報檔下載)
- 參與教授：童慶斌(發表人), 李光敦, 蘇慧貞, 盧虎生, 李明旭
- 中文摘要：過去氣候變遷脆弱度評估經常只涉及單一領域（discipline）之脆弱度評估，然而，生活世界中所面臨的氣候變遷衝擊往往是橫跨諸多領域的，且各領域間彼此交互影響。單一領域的脆弱度評估可能忽略其他領域因子的影響，削弱了評估的合理度。並且，在諸多價值相互競逐的今日，根據不同領域的脆弱度評估結果採取實際調適作為時，常會面臨權衡（trade-off）問題，如興建堤防抵禦洪患會增加生態環境的脆弱度、糧食產量提高可能減少可用的公共用水、以井水作為替代用水可能提升人類罹患疾病的風險，因此面對氣候變遷必需通盤考量。從而，政府部門迫切需要整合式的而非散見各處的脆弱度評估工具，方能據之規劃合適的調適策略。氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫（Taiwan Integrated Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology, TaiCCAT）的目標之一即在研發創新的支援調適政策決策工具—跨領域脆弱度評估方法（interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment method, IVAM），本研究提出IVAM之建構方法，首先藉由DSR架構（driving force-state-response framework, DSR framework），發展各領域之子系統心智圖（mind map），隨即探討子系統所含因子之因果關係完成子系統之系統動力模式，復以各子系統相同因子為連接點連結各領域子系統，並以跨領域議題探討不同子系統不同因子之因果關係強化各領域子系統之連結，至此跨領域系統動力模式遂告成形。接著利用此跨領域系統動力模式causes tree/uses tree之分析，本研究可以測試評估特定氣候變遷調適政策之影響範圍，從而界定政府部門利害關係者。此外，本研究透過各子系統服務供給（supplies of services）與服務需求（demands for service）之狀態變數，設計脆弱度與回復力指標，各子系統之指標體系能將其他子系統因子考量在內，釐清脆弱環節以採取因應的調適作為。
- 關鍵詞彙：跨領域, 支援決策, 因果分析, 脆弱度, 回復力
氣候變遷調適治理之整合性研究 (簡報檔下載)
- 參與教授：張靜貞(發表人), 詹士樑, 范建得
- 中文摘要：台灣位於巨災高危險地區，預計未來在全球氣候變遷下，大型天災對民眾生命財產之威脅將更趨嚴重。有鑑於氣候變遷及其衝擊均具有高度不確定性，且隨空間、領域、及時間長短而異，氣候變遷調適行動之推動，除了技術、資金、人才之外，還需要良好的治理模式與符合時宜的法規制度。「調適治理組」為氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫（Taiwan Integrated Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology, TaiCCAT）三個子計畫群之一，本組的中心目標是發展與調適科技相互呼應的治理能力，以及強化公私部門因應氣候變遷之調適能力，研究方法包括以空間向度為主軸，建構氣候變遷調適的管考評估指標，以辨識氣候變遷調適之關鍵影響因子與潛在衝擊熱點，研擬空間調適策略。其次則是透過國際公約走勢與國內法制盤點之交叉研究，提供法律取向支援，界定國內法律風險、法規架構現況以及公約下建議規範，與國際公約或基金接軌，作為政府決策之法制支援機制。最後則以風險管理為主軸，建立風險管理決策模式，強化資料分析能力與風險溝通，強化各利害關係人風險管理能力，以縮短決策落差，並落實調適行動方案之推動與管考。
- 關鍵詞彙：調適科技、整合平台、法規制度、評估指標、風險管理、成本效益分析
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Environmental System Analysis
- Authors: Ming-An Lee (Presenter), Gin-Rong Liu, Liang-Chen Chen, Tang-Huang Lin, Chyi-Tyi Lee
- Abstract: Climate change could be an additional pressure on loss of habitat, disturbance of ecosystem, and socioeconomics. Extreme and Oceanic environment already experiences the effect of climate change on fish stocks and aquaculture. Factors that can effect onenvironmental system are including air temperature, fluctuation of precipitation, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, and changes in ocean circulations. Some parts of environmental system, such as ocean and coastal zone, respond irregularly in reaction to climate changes because of the complicated interactions between atmosphere and hydrosphere. For examples, extreme cold water events in La Niña winters and rarely seen heavy rainfall brought by strong typhoons were frequently occurred in Taiwan. Societies and the government challenge the technology and management to adapt the influence of climate change on environmental and societal impacts. This study provided value-added analysis of multiple factors of environment from both satellite monitor data and ground truth measurements for the process of Land-ocean-atmospheric environment system and vulnerability assessment. The results of this research projects revealed that warming sea water temperature in the Taiwan Strait has been documented with more than 0.8。C increase, which caused the change in spawning ground of mullet fish. In addition, extreme cold water events due to the change of current circulation occurred in recent La Niña winters greatly damaged the coral reef ecosystem and mariculture. On the other hand, in summer strong typhoons with rarely seen heavy rainfall destroyed villages of human being and aquaculture ponds in coastal regions. Hot island effect was also investigated in this study. These are clear effect of climate change on Land-ocean-atmospheric environment and their interactions. Continuous monitoring of environmental systems and integrating of multi-dimension fields with new technique developments are needed for forecasting and assessing the effectiveness of climate change on environment surrounding Taiwan.
- Keywords: Taiwan, Environmental system, Global warming, Urban heat island, Value-added analysis
Study on Cross-sectoral Vulnerability Assessment and Resilient Capacity Building
- Authors: Ching-Pin Tung (Presenter), Kwan-Tun Lee, Huey-Jen Su, Huu-Shen Lur, Ming-Hsu Li
- Abstract: Previous vulnerability assessments concern assessing vulnerability in a single discipline. Yet, the climate change impacts we confront with in the life-world are usually cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary. Many disciplines interact with one another under climate change. Vulnerability assessments in a single discipline may neglect/ignore subtle or critical effects by other disciplines, diminishing the reliability of the assessments. In addition, nowadays various competing values frequently result in trade-off issues when taking practical adaptation action according to vulnerability assessments in different disciplines. For example, construction of dikes to withstand flooding increases the vulnerability of the ecological environment; raising food production reduces available domestic and industrial water supplies; using groundwater during the drought may raise the risk of waterborne diseases. Hence integrated vulnerability assessment tools are so required that government departments could plan appropriate adaptation strategies by them. Taiwan Integrated Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT, http://nscccat.blogspot.tw/) stressed the innovation of a supportive tool for adaptation decision-making-the interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment method (IVAM). Through driving force-state-response framework (DSR framework), the IVAM starts with the development of sub-systems of distinct disciplinarities in mind maps. Then, the system dynamics model of each sub-system is further developed. After connecting identical factors among different sub-systems, the interdisciplinary system dynamics model can be established. With its causes tree/uses tree, we are allowed to pre-assess the influenced extent due to one specific policy on climate change and to identify government stakeholders of that policy. Meanwhile, this study proposes the vulnerability and resilience indicator system via major state factors of supplies of services and demands for service. Interdisciplinary vulnerability and resilience indices of each sub-system can contain the ef-fects of factors of other sub-systems. Thus we are capable of finding the vulnerable part of the interdisciplinary system along with adopting correspondingly adaptive measures.
- Keywords: Interdisciplinary, Support decision-making, Causality analysis, Vulnerability, Resilience
An Integrated Study on the Governance of Climate Change Adaptation
- Authors: Ching-Cheng Chang(Presenter), Shih-Liang Chan, Chien-Te Fan
- Abstract: Climate change will lead to more frequent and intense weather conditions in Taiwan, causing increased damage to human lives and civilian properties in the long term. Due to the high uncertainty of the climate change and its associated impacts, it has become a big challenge for the traditional state governance and institutions. This study is one of the research areas in the Taiwan Integrated Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT) project, focusing on the adaptation governance through access to decision-making and planning for the future under new climate risks. The main purpose is to empower the adaptation technologies with sufficient institutional/legal capacity and to enhance the ability of both public and private sectors to adapt to our own future. Since the issues of procedural fairness are central to adaptation governance, this study uses the Geographic Information System to integrate process-based and outcome-based principles into an indicator system for monitoring and identification of the critical impact factors and hotspots. The current research capacity, technologies and their potentiality for dissemination will also be reviewed in conjunction with the domestic legal risk as well as the completeness of related legislation under the guidelines of UNFCCC. Finally, the concept of climate change-induced uncertainty will be introduced into the evaluation of the societal benefits and costs of various ex-ante and ex-post alternatives in risk prevention and mitigation. The results of integrated cost-benefit analysis can be used as a decision-making guideline to prioritize alternative measures and to establish a knowledge-based information platform to disseminate mitigation strategies, allocate resources, increase trust among all stakeholders, and enhance capacity at local scale to participate in adaptation as well as monitoring and enforcement.
- Keywords: Adaptation technologies, Integrated platform, Legislation system, Evaluation and monitoring indicators, Risk management, Cost-benefit analysis
